The Opener

1. The Toronto Blue Jays became the first team in the American League to clinch a postseason spot. Despite a talented core headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays have frustrated fans — and, presumably, themselves — in recent seasons. They’ve made the playoffs three times in the last nine years but have not won a single game in October over the span.
2. With a week to go in the regular season, the New York Mets have fallen out of the postseason picture for the first time since early April. In some ways, the swoon has been long and slow — their 35-52 record since June 13 is tied for fourth-worst in baseball. But it’s still surprising that the postseason is in jeopardy. At the beginning of the month, FanGraphs gave the Mets a 94.5% chance to make the postseason. Today, it’s essentially a coin flip.
3. The Seattle Mariners swept the Houston Astros over the weekend, giving the Mariners a three-game lead in the AL West. Let’s focus on the Astros for a second: They’re now tied with the Cleveland Guardians for the final Wild Card spot. Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs recently found that the Astros have likely missed out on the most possible production from injured players this season — primarily in the form of Yordan Alvarez, who has appeared in fewer than 50 games after being worth more than 5 wins last year. That’s not a huge surprise — the Astros have been hit hard by lack of health — and yet it would be a shock to the broader baseball landscape if the Astros missed October entirely. They’ve played in eight-straight postseasons — including seven ALCS, four World Series, with two rings (and one asterisk) to show for it.

Have you noticed Geraldo Perdomo?

By Zach Crizer

I don’t say this lightly, but I think Diamondbacks shortstop Geraldo Perdomo is going Full Jose Ramirez.

On the list of most valuable players since July 1, Perdomo is first, and not by a microscopic margin. He’s batting .321 with 10 homers, 13 steals and 13 more walks than strikeouts, while playing good shortstop defense. His .430 on-base percentage trails only George Springer and Aaron Judge.

Zooming out to the full season leaderboard, he’s going to finish as a top five position player in baseball. Which is how you get an MLB.com story breaking down your MVP case.

I’m less interested in exactly where he’ll finish in MVP voting — not first, but rightfully in the top five! — and more inclined to sound the air horn that Perdomo fits some patterns that point to real staying power.

• He is only 25, even though he debuted in 2021. Debuts at young ages (Perdomo was 21) are often indicative of a player’s potential even when the numbers don’t shine through right away.
• His offensive success is rooted in elite plate discipline numbers that were present before this season. Even when he was a below average hitter in 2023, his 18% chase rate was elite, and he had crested the 90% contact rate on pitches in the zone.
• Now he has added punch to his swings, getting to pull power from both sides of the plate without selling out for it.

An unheralded early debut, followed by uneven results despite good process, followed by an offensive leap forward accompanying physical maturity … this is the Jose Ramirez story almost to a T. Ramirez made his great leap forward to a third-place MVP finish at age 24, but also debuted at age 20.

Adding to the effect is Perdomo’s apparent leading role in the clubhouse. Ken Rosenthal caught wind of it in May, with Arizona manager Torey Lovullo adding a “not comparing him to …” disclaimer before comparing Perdomo to Derek Jeter.

“He sees the whole picture,” Lovullo said. “I never played with Derek Jeter. I only played against him. But I imagine that’s how Jeter was. He saw the puzzle and fit the puzzle together.”

It was telling that Perdomo was the player to step up and speak about the Ketel Marte kerfuffle earlier this summer.

So, not to compare him to Ramirez, but Perdomo — who is signed through 2029 on a $45 million extension with a 2030 club option — is earning the plaudits that come after the cautious disclaimer. I’m just about ready to throw caution to the wind.

The Bullpen

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How’d the Mets, the second most expensive team in MLB, ultimately end up slipping — at least temporarily — out of the playoff picture? A sub-1.0 WAR player on the last-place Washington Nationals.

Jacob Young, who has quietly been Baseball Savant’s second-most valuable outfielder over the past two seasons, had a couple of game-changing defensive plays on Sunday.