The Opener

1. I (Hannah) had been wondering what might do more to sway MVP voters to Cal Raleigh’s case: 60 home runs or his Seattle Mariners winning the AL West. Well, even if we could retroactively track voter sentiment over a time, we would never know. Because he and they accomplished both on the same night. More on Cal’s multi-homer night below, but the upshot of the victory was that the Mariners have clinched the division title for the first time since 2001, toppling the mighty Astros, and just their second playoff appearance since then.
2. Although they never quite established themselves a superteam that threatened to upend baseball’s economic structure, the Dodgers have clinched the NL West — their 12th such title in 13 seasons. Even though it took until the final week of the season, if they make a deep October run or go so far as to win back-to-back championships, I’m sure we’ll still hear about it when the owners call for a salary cap! Remind me later to ask labor-conscious Dodgers fans how they navigate that pitfall to their rooting interests.
3. The Washington Nationals, who fired long-time general manager Mike Rizzo in July, have hired Red Sox assistant GM Paul Toboni to be their president of baseball operations. It’s a big jump for the 35-year-old, who is expected to hire a GM to serve under him.

Series that will matter this weekend

Every team has one series left to play and, despite how settled the postseason picture looked at the start of the month, suddenly there is still much to be determined. Some of that is jockeying for seeding, but some of these teams are still figuring out if they can plan vacations for mid-October. Unfortunately, for the most part, the teams chasing each other are not actually playing each other, which means you gotta monitor a handful of different series to know who will be playing October baseball.

Three teams competing for one spot in the NL Wild Card

Mets at Marlins

A 37-53 run starting June 13 saw the Mets drop from one of the best teams in baseball to barely clinging to the final Wild Card spot. They actually started the week on the outside looking in, but managed to take two of three from the Cubs in the most recent series. That’s put them a game up on the Reds and two games up on the Diamondbacks — but both the D-backs and Reds have the tiebreaker over the Mets, should it come to that.

Vibe? Extremely bad!! The Mets are currently in playoff position. Their stars — Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto — are starring. Nolan McLean has a 2.06 ERA through his first eight big-league starts. And, indeed, if McLean could pitch the next three games, Mets fans would probably be feeling pretty good. But McLean will not pitch again until either Tuesday at Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the Wild Card. Or next season. So let’s check in with my mother.

That’s because the Mets still need to get 81 outs and the three projected starters are two dudes with ERAs over 7 since the start of August (Sean Manaea, David Peterson) and a kid appearing in his fourth major league game (Brandon Sproat). The Mets’ lack of reliable starting pitching has plagued them for months and, in the final weekend, it may ultimately doom them.

The Mets offense has the potential to be potent, but they’re facing the sort of legit starting pitchers they could really use in blue and orange right now. Plus, heading to Miami for this final pivotal series has some shades of nightmares past.

Reds at Brewers

The Reds are the Mets closest threat to snag the Wild Card spot and they finish the season against the best team in baseball. You could argue that the Brewers, who have already clinched homefield advantage throughout the postseason, won’t have anything to play for. And technically that’s true, but I’m inclined to think they’ll endeavor to get the competitive juices flowing for the sake of staying sharp and staving off the rust during their first-round bye.

Vibes? The Reds started September hot and caught the Mets with a five-game win streak…but then they lost the first two games to the Pirates and could have gotten swept if not for Noelvi Marte’s home-run robbery.

That’s one of those plays that either becomes a beloved part of local lore or gets forgotten entirely, depending on how these next three days go.

Diamondbacks at Padres

FanGraphs gives the Diamondbacks’ a sub-2% chance of securing that final Wild Card spot, but we’re including them anyway because I think we both like the overall “true talent” of the Dbacks better than that of the Reds. Which probably won’t matter! At two games back with three to play, they’re the furtherest from the postseason picture that we’re still talking about and they’re playing a formidable foe in the Padres.

In their favor: A top-10 offense in baseball, even after trading away Eugenio Suárez, thanks in part to the latest unheralded superstar; Zac Gallen going tonight, after he’s cut his ERA by nearly two runs since the All-Star break; and the Padres having already said they’ll be taking it easy this weekend with nothing left to play for.

Vibes? It seems Arizona might be headed for an unfortunate bit of déjà vu, getting eliminated at the last minute by a Mets team that’s not much better. If that does come to pass, it would be bummer for a Dbacks team that has admirably “tried” over these last few seasons. But if it’s any consolation, while that 2024 club won five more games than the 2023 one which made an unlikely World Series run, this one is guaranteed to win at most 83. Honestly, it’s not clear from the records that any of these teams really want (or deserve) it.

And now, over in the American League …

Four teams competing for two spots — the AL Wild Card and the AL Central

Tigers at Red Sox

The Red Sox have a magic number of one, so they clinch a postseason berth with either a win or an Astros loss. But before taking that for granted, they’ll probably want to ask the visiting Tigers about how difficult a single win can feel.

Having blown a massive advantage in the AL Central, Detroit is technically tied with the Guardians headed into this final series, but Cleveland holds the tiebreaker. Winning the division is on the table, as is missing the postseason entirely.

Vibes? Desperate? Let’s go with desperate. It’s certainly true of the Tigers, whose 6-15 September has knocked the club that once had the best record in the AL down into borderline crisis mode. The Red Sox feel secure as a postseason team, just as they have for most of the second half, but they can’t seem to make anything easy, especially since Roman Anthony’s injury. If the Tigers take the opener, Boston’s stress levels could rise quickly.

Rangers at Guardians

This is all about Cleveland’s quest to finish off the biggest division comeback in MLB history. All they have to do is match the Tigers’ win total to claim the AL Central crown. The Rangers, eliminated earlier this week, have several stars shut down with injuries.

Vibes? Sort of like standing in the home stretch of a marathon and being stunned to see your friend, a middle of the pack runner the whole way, rounding the corner first.

Astros at Angels

Houston’s eight-year streak of postseason appearances is in serious jeopardy, and the Astros will need help to make it nine. Realistically, they need to win out and hope someone else stumbles, as they would lose tiebreakers to the Red Sox, Tigers and Guardians.

Vibes? Houston has been such a dominant force in the AL for so long that this feels seismic. Framber Valdez may have made his last start for the team, and the rash of injuries that finally kneecapped their efforts would seemingly hint at age catching up to them. So it feels a little bit like the last day of school, yet I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros pull a rabbit out of a hat, or at the very least start a new streak next year.

Also interesting: the Blue Jays and Yankees are tied in the AL East. The Blue Jays own the tiebreaker — so, as it stands, they get the bye. This is definitely still some intrigue, but both teams will play in October as the loser of the East will get a Wild Card spot. The Blue Jays play at Tampa and the Yankees host the Orioles.

The Bullpen

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On Wednesday, Cal Raleigh hit home run number 59 and also home run number 60. Kyle Schwarber hit homers number 55 and 56. Aaron Judge hit numbers 50 and 51. James Wood hit numbers 29 and 30. Edmundo Sosa hit numbers eight, nine, and 10! So I think what we can say for sure is that Sosa is the premier power hitter in MLB this season.

But really, doesn’t that seem like a lot of multi-homer games on one day? I thought it did! So I said as much to Zach.

I’ll let him respond. –HK

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Five multi-homer games in one day is a lot! But not really a lot. There were, for example, five multi-homer games on July 18 and July 11.

There were seven multi-homer games on July 4.

You will be unsurprised to find out that 2019 produced the most multi-homer games (456), followed by 2017 (396). The 2025 season has seen 344 so far, tracking to land in the top five but not surpass those homer-tastic years or even 2021. For all of this, send your thanks to Baseball-Reference. –ZC

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I was kidding about Sosa’s power status, but I am a sort of ambient fan of his. Which is to say, I want him to do well and assumed I had a rosier impression of him than is fully deserved. But! According to the esteemed Joe Sheehan, those warm fuzzy feelings are deserved:

This is Sosa’s second two-win season as the Phillies’ backup infielder, playing about half the time. He’s been one of the most valuable reserves this decade. Defining a bench player as one with at least 300 games played, fewer than 1500 plate appearances, and at least ten games at three positions since 2021, Sosa leads the group with 9.8 bWAR, ahead of Ernie Clement, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Jose Caballero.

Plus, I do still remember this very good home run robbery from early in the season. Although watching it back now, I realize there have been way better ones since. –HK

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If you can believe it, I wasn’t watching the game between the last-place Orioles and fourth-place Rays on Wednesday night. So when I saw a clip of Tampa reliever — and frequent source of notable quotes — Pete Fairbanks saying of the Orioles “I don’t think I’d be chirping a group of LEGO-loving people like that” I needed some context filled in.

Evidently, Fairbanks hit Samuel Basallo, the Orioles’ 21-year-old top prospect playing in his 29th big league game, in the hand before closing out the win for the Rays with a blown kiss in the general direction of the Baltimore dugout. This, perhaps, rankled some. So he was explaining postgame that the gesture had nothing to do with Basallo, or the O’s players at all. It was directed at a very specific fan — “a guy, about Adam Berry’s size, wearing a 2008 Majestic Dugout jacket, and a dad Orioles hat” — and not the opposing team.

Which I think he was intending to compliment by calling them “LEGO-loving” — an interpretation bolstered by all the instances of Fairbanks himself proudly showing off his LEGO love.

I once submitted my own design to LEGO magazine (to be clear: several decades ago) so I have no aspersions to cast on this particular personality trait. I’m just curious about the linguistic use. Does Fairbanks specifically know the O’s to love LEGO or is “LEGO-loving” an all-purpose term of endearment? –HK

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If you thought A’s owner John Fisher was shitty to the fans in Oakland, well, you’re right! (And Bay Area fans who justifiably pissed off should avail themselves of what I’m sure will be a cathartic experience in Dan Moore’s forthcoming book about sports in Oakland.) But, predictably, it seems he hasn’t been much better to the fanbase in Sacramento either. There’s a really good piece out at ESPN by Tim Keown about how Sacramento fans, especially those who were eager to make the best of the situation by becoming season ticket holders, ended up feeling duped and disrespected.

Here’s one choice quote from a fan: “I just could not wrap my head around the idea that they could screw this up any more than they already have. And they have, in glorious proportion. It would have been so easy for them to embrace this community and watch it embrace you back, but Fisher is salting the earth here, just like he did in Oakland.” –HK

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I wanted to remark upon Taylor and Tyler Rogers appearing in the same game on Thursday night. But turns out, it wasn’t even that remarkable! And based on their track record, I’ll probably get another shot at it.

(Important to note that they were on the same team for two seasons in San Francisco which probably contributed to this.)

So I will remark instead on how absolutely bonkers it is to name your twins Taylor and Tyler. That’s self-defeating behavior right there. Making your own life harder. No reason for it. –HK