Preboarding, Part 2: What you might call breakout players

Hey everyone, we’re going to get to Part 2 of my series on MLB players leveling up this year, but first we have to talk about an especially dramatic few days of the World Baseball Classic.

Let’s run through five skirmishes defining baseball’s global event.

USA vs. Italy

Behind a barrage of early homers from Team Italy’s Jac Caglianone (Royals), Kyle Teel and Sam Antonacci (both White Sox), Italy put Team USA in a hole and held on to win. Michael Lorenzen held down the USA lineup for 4 2/3 innings.

It was a stirring win for a fun Italian team — espresso shots and Vinnie Pasquantino cheek kisses for all — and sets up a scenario where Team USA could be bounced before the knockout stages …

Mark DeRosa vs. math

Which may or may not have been news to USA manager Mark DeRosa. The former infielder and TV analyst moonlighting in the dugout seemed to think, in an interview before the game, that Team USA was in no danger of elimination.

After the game, he said he misspoke and left it rather unclear whether he was aware of the stakes during the game. He started Paul Goldschmidt over Bryce Harper at first, and used Ryan Yarbrough as the first arm in relief. It’s hard to say with any certainty if those decisions would have been altered by what he did or didn’t understand, but it’s not a good look for a guy who perhaps never looked like a great choice for a cushy gig.

Now Team USA’s advancement is out of their hands. It will come down to Mexico vs. Italy. More on that in a moment.

Randy Arozarena vs. Cal Raleigh

The Mariners teammates are playing for Mexico and the US, respectively. When Arozarena came to bat with Raleigh behind the plate, he reached for a handshake / dap situation, and Raleigh didn’t reciprocate.

This set off the second batter-catcher handshake controversy of the WBC, somehow. Didn’t have that on the bingo card.

Arozarena took offense, saying after the game, “That ‘good to see you’ that he said to me, he can shove it straight up his ass. I’m out.” Amusingly, he did take a moment to compliment Raleigh’s parents. Raleigh told reporters “there’s no beef,” but it doesn’t seem like he would be the source to determine that. More to come perhaps!

Czech ace / electrician vs. Japan

Unlike the previous battles, this one seems to be animosity-free. The Czech pitcher Ondřej Satoria, who works as an electrical controller and barely cracks 80 mph with his heater, struck out Shohei Ohtani in the 2023 WBC. That made him a celebrity in Japan, as preeminent WBC chronicler Michael Clair explained:

Now, when Satoria is in Japan, he’s a star. People want to shake his hand, give him gifts, get his signature. Last year, he attended the Expo Pavilion in Osaka and fans were so excited to meet him, he had two autograph sessions.

Back for one last turn with the national team this year, Satoria faced Team Japan again — this time with Ohtani sitting, as Japan had already clinched — and fired 4 2/3 shutout innings!

Maybe the real battle was Satoria vs. the WBC’s pitch limit rules.

Tiebreakers vs. sanity

OK so, the Italy vs. Mexico game tonight (7pm ET, on a free streaming platform called Tubi) will determine which two of the USA, Italy and Mexico advance.

If Italy wins, it’s easy: Italy and the USA move on.

If Mexico wins, you’ll need a cheat sheet. All the teams would be 3-1, so tiebreakers would take effect. The relevant one, in this instance, will be runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded. This is wonkier because of the tournament’s mercy rule, but once someone does the math, it’s not too hard to track. (As long as that someone isn’t DeRosa, I guess.)

A Mexico win where they score 4 or fewer runs means Mexico and Italy advance.

A Mexico win where they score 5 or more runs means Mexico and the US advance.

Arrange your rooting interests accordingly!

Also today, a simpler play-in game: Canada vs. Cuba at 3pm ET on FS2. Winner moves on, loser goes home. And a fun matchup for seeding between two powerhouses already advancing: Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela at 8pm ET on FS1.

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Early Boarding: The All-Star Local

In Part 1 of this series, I looked at players who are primed to leap into MVP or Cy Young contention. Today’s picks track more closely with the traditional definition of a breakout players list.

I went searching for profiles I think could blossom into All-Star level production over a full season. Last year’s version of this included hits on Ben Rice and Jonathan Aranda aaaand also some other names. Plus, I identify a few deep cuts (and relief pitchers) who could surprise simply by becoming established players.

Jakob Marsee, Marlins outfielder

Why? Part of the endless chain of productive former Padres prospects, Marsee looked like an irrelevant piece of the Luis Arraez trade until he emerged rejuvenated in 2025 and scorched the big leagues to the tune of .292/.363/.478 for 55 games at the end of the season. His head-turning debut was inflated by some unsustainable batted-ball luck and an unreasonable number of triples, but this is a day for Why, not Why Not.

Marsee was always great at avoiding chase and taking his walks. The 2025 version amped things up by swinging at more strikes, just enough to be dangerous, and hitting the ball hard in the right direction enough to be a power threat. Add in the wheels (he stole 61 bases across Triple-A and the bigs in 2025) and that’s a formula I’ll buy every time.

Put it all together and I think he’s somewhere between souped-up Adam Eaton and Corbin Carroll Lite.

José Caballero, Yankees shortstop

Why? So here’s a tendency I need to briefly explain (but that deserves a much fuller exploration): Yankees hitters let the ball travel further before contact than any other team’s batters. Their average intercept point in 2025 was the only one in MLB that was behind the front lip of the plate.

I don’t fully know what that means holistically, but I do have some evidence it arises from organizational philosophy and coaching: Upon joining the Yankees from the Rays midseason, Caballero flipped from hitting the ball out in front of the plate and pulling the ball to letting the ball travel deep and more frequently hitting it straightaway or to the opposite field.

In August and September, his average attack direction flipped to the opposite field for the first time in his regular playing career. In those same months, he logged his two highest hard-hit rates, shaved his strikeout rate down from problematic to desirable and tallied a 134 wRC+.

More time to see the pitch and focus on bat-to-ball could have amplified effects for Caballero, a superlative baserunner and savvy fielder. He was a 2.1 WAR player lat year with partial playing time and a below-average batting line. An improved strikeout rate and some more line drives makes him a star, and perhaps makes Anthony Volpe the new Wally Pipp.

Brayan Bello, Red Sox pitcher

Why? The 26-year-old starter keeps finding his way to roughly average. That’s a good pitcher to have, but there is more ceiling here. Bello arrived in Boston with a build and a changeup that inspired people to at least ask Pedro Martinez about him. But somewhere along the line, the changeup lost some of its bite — with its whiff rate declining every season.

Now, Bello says he has rediscovered his changeup, which would add a true whiff-maker to a sturdier arsenal that keeps hitters off balance with a true three-pronged fastball attack.

Daylen Lile, Nationals outfielder

Why? Another compact lefty-batting outfielder with a strong debut under his belt, a la Marsee, Lile gets the barrel to the ball consistently. He showed some memorable pop, but the appeal here is the potential to compete for a batting title.

He hits a lot of line drives, runs like the wind and doesn’t appear to have a huge weakness against any one pitch type. Lile was running a .328 average in the minors before being summoned to Washington and batting .299 across 91 games (with an expected batting average in the top 1% of MLB, per Statcast).

Parker Messick, Guardians starter

Why? Soft-tossing lefty changeup artist who throws strikes. Yeah, this is a guy who succeeds with the Guardians. But watch the fastball. He consistently bamboozles hitters with a fastball going 93 mph.

A sturdy build and that consistent strike-throwing ability make Messick a pretty sure thing to take his turn in an MLB rotation, but I think his limbs everywhere delivery and well-commanded fastball-changeup combo can elevate him toward the top of said rotation.

Jahmai Jones, Tigers outfielder

Why? There’s a platoon question to reckon with here. Jones could achieve a good outcome and still just be the new Rob Refsnyder — mashing lefties and sitting against righties — which wouldn’t justify this inclusion.

Still, I can’t help but think the former Angels prospect might have figured something out after several years bouncing around the Quad-A circuit. In an admittedly small big-league sample, his 90th-percentile exit velocity, a good measure of power potential, was sandwiched between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto, solidly in the top 15% of hitters.

He pulls the ball in the air often, at least when facing lefties, and has a strong plate discipline profile. The underlying numbers make me think there’s enough potential here for Jones to prove himself against righties and usurp the likes of Zach McKinstry, Wenceel Perez or Matt Vierling for a regular lineup spot.

Early Boarding: Sickos Shuttle

Eric Wagaman, Twins first baseman

Hit ball hard, hit ball often, good things happen. I still have some faith that Wagaman can parlay a combo of good contact rates and upper tier exit velocity capability into a regular role, somewhere in the Jake Burger vein perhaps. The 2026 Twins are a great place to do that.

Brooks Baldwin, White Sox … hitter

I don’t know if Baldwin should play defense anywhere, but he’s a fun switch hitter with the Bryce Harper-style aggressive mindset. With big power from the left side especially, he could be a real bat for the White Sox.

Justin Wrobleski, Dodgers reliever

Things with the Dodgers pitching staff famously go as planned, right? If anything with the big names goes awry, watch for Wrobleski to take a bigger role and run with it. He’s a lefty who gets a lot of ground balls and found something elevating his slider to a featured role in the arsenal near the end of last season.

Jaden Hill, Rockies reliever

A Rockies pitcher? Never say I don’t take shots. Hill already had a high-octane sinker-slider combo in a solid partial season of work last year. Now, as FanGraphs’ Michael Rosen notes, he may have added a couple ticks of velocity. Sign me up.

Grant Taylor, White Sox reliever

Cut-ride fastballs are weird, and difficult to hit because they’re weird. They move to the glove side more than hitters’ brains expect from a heater. He has one that goes 99 mph. Relievers are weird, fluky beings, but if Taylor isn’t an upper echelon closer in the next two seasons I’ll be surprised.