Fan-dicapping the AL wild card race

Plus: Rookies! Noise! And the ultimate bandwagon move

Hey everyone. On Tuesday, I covered the meta level of madness with regard to the American League postseason race. Today, we are accepting that reality into our lives and looking more closely at each of the middling manufactured contenders, two of whom will play in October. Later, I'll have some bits and bobs from around the league.

But first, let’s take a run through the eight teams involved in the AL scrum and handicap — ahem, fan-dicap — a race that will certainly bear watching, even if it’s through clasped fingers covering our eyes.

Houston Astros

Odds, per FanGraphs: 62.2%

Reason to believe: They are over .500, which is more than any of these other teams can say. Despite a grisly pitching depth situation, the Astros lead the AL West and have a leg up on locking down a spot.

Reason to root for them: The postseason is better with Yordan Alvarez’s bat involved. Unless you’re a pitcher.

Minnesota Twins

Odds: 39.2%

Reason to believe: With a three-game winning streak under their belts, the Twins now have the highest odds of any of these teams beyond the Astros. They also have reinforcements available in Triple-A, if they choose to deploy them. Top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are both healthy, at time of writing (go knock on the biggest tree you can find), and Jenkins in particular seems a likely candidate to provide a spark down the stretch alongside already summoned shortstop Kaelen Culpepper.

Reason to root for them: They would be by far the most surprising postseason team to a visitor who just time machined in from April.

Texas Rangers

Odds: 30.2%

Reason to believe: To quote friend of the newsletter Mike Piellucci, they are the most .500 team in baseball: “It is a testament to the grit Skip Schumaker has instilled that an outgunned group is relevant this deep into August, after another winter of austerity left Texas with an incomplete lineup, a piecemeal bullpen, and a rotation that is old at the front and unproven in back. Some players have exceeded expectations, others underwhelmed, but none of it really matters because the 2026 Rangers weren’t built to be great. They were built to hang around.” And .500 might be enough.

Reason to root for them: Jacob deGrom has thrown fewer postseason innings (31) than October legend Nathan Eovaldi tossed in the 2023 World Series run alone (36 2/3). It would be nice to see both of them extend their stories.

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